It feels like just yesterday that Google started rolling out its AI Overviews to everyone in the U.S. back in May 2024. But in that short time, a seismic shift has occurred for many publishers. We're talking about significant traffic losses, with some reporting click-through rates plummeting by as much as 89%. The real question isn't if AI Overviews are impacting traffic, but rather the extent of the damage and how it's affecting different kinds of content.
For most major publishers, search engines – including Google Discover and the traditional Google Search – consistently provide a substantial chunk of their referral traffic, often between 20% and 40%. It's their biggest external lifeline. So, when a large media group like DMG Media, which owns MailOnline and Metro, starts talking about nearly 90% declines for certain search queries, it’s a pretty stark warning sign for the entire traditional publishing landscape.
We've now had over a year of AI Overviews (and the earlier Search Generative Experience) to observe. This period has given us a wealth of data from publishers, researchers, and industry analysts. Pulling together findings from numerous studies, covering hundreds of thousands of keywords and tens of thousands of user searches, paints a clear picture of real-world publisher experiences.
The evidence is quite overwhelming. We're seeing average declines reported by Pew Research Center at 46%, while the worst-case scenarios from DMG Media hit 89%. Even educational platforms like Chegg have reported a 49% drop. Interestingly, though, some publishers are actually seeing an increase in branded searches, hinting that there might be survival strategies for those willing to adapt.
So, what's really going on here, and why? It seems the types of content facing the biggest changes are those that used to directly answer user queries in a detailed way. Conversely, some content seems to be holding up relatively well. It's also worth understanding why Google might say clicks are "higher quality" even as publishers see their overall traffic numbers shrink. This isn't just guesswork; there are observable changes that make sense when you look at the actual data.
AI Overviews represent the most significant change to search since featured snippets first appeared back in 2014. They're fundamentally altering the content publishers are creating and, crucially, increasing zero-click searches. According to Similarweb, these now make up a staggering 69% of all queries. Whether your business lives and dies by search traffic or you're just keeping an eye on industry trends, these patterns are having a profound impact on digital marketing.
We're truly entering a new era of search, one that's reshaping how online information is shared and how we, as users, interact with it.
The Overwhelming Evidence from Studies
Google's AI Overviews have undeniably impacted traffic across most online verticals and altered how people search. The feature, initially announced as Search Generative Experience (SGE) at Google I/O in May 2023, has since expanded to over 200 countries and 40 languages, with a further expansion in May 2025.
Independent research conducted throughout 2024 and 2025 consistently shows click-through rate reductions. When AI summaries appear on search results pages, these reductions range from 34% to 46%.
Let's look at some of the key findings:
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Reduced Click-Through Rates (Pew Research Center): A rigorous study by Pew Research Center tracked 68,000 real search queries. They found that users clicked on results only 8% of the time when AI summaries were present, compared to 15% without them. This represents a significant 46.7% relative reduction. While Google questioned Pew's methodology, suggesting the analysis period overlapped with unrelated algorithm testing, the timing and observed decline strongly suggest a notable relationship with AI Overviews.
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Position One Eroded (Ahrefs): Ahrefs' analysis revealed that click-through rates for the top-ranking position dropped for informational keywords that triggered AI Overviews. Ryan Law, Director of Content Marketing at Ahrefs, noted on LinkedIn that "AI Overviews reduce clicks by 34.5%." This directly contradicts Google's assertion that being featured in an AI Overview leads to higher click-through rates. The sheer volume of industry agreement with these findings, evidenced by thousands of reactions to Law's post, underscores the widespread concern.
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More Zero-Click Searches (Similarweb): Data from Similarweb shows a clear trend: zero-click searches increased from 56% to 69% between May 2024 and May 2025. While this trend isn't solely attributable to AI Overviews, the timing of the rollout aligns perfectly. Zero-click searches are helpful for simple queries like weather or stock prices, but the concern arises when they start encroaching on areas where publishers used to provide in-depth content. Stuart Forrest, global director of SEO digital publishing at Bauer Media, confirmed this trend to the BBC, stating, "We’re definitely moving into the era of lower clicks and lower referral traffic."
It's clear that the landscape of online search has fundamentally changed. Publishers are grappling with these new realities, and understanding these shifts is crucial for navigating the future of digital content and traffic.
