The college football landscape is a wild, unpredictable beast, and as we approach the third College Football Playoff rankings reveal, the dust is still settling from a weekend of seismic upsets. Two top-10 teams stumbled, and suddenly, the carefully constructed order of the CFP committee is looking a lot more fluid. It’s a fascinating puzzle, and as these predictions roll out, it’s clear there’s no single, easy answer.
As of Sunday, November 16th, the committee's work is cut out for them. Ohio State, still undefeated at 10-0, seems firmly entrenched at the top. Their defense has been a brick wall, making it incredibly tough for anyone to put points on the board. Right behind them, Indiana, also boasting an unblemished 11-0 record, continues to impress, especially after a dominant performance against Wisconsin. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza had a big day, and that kind of offensive firepower is hard to ignore.
Texas A&M, despite a shaky start where they trailed South Carolina by 27 points, managed a comeback win. While it wasn't the most convincing performance, their undefeated status (10-0) likely keeps them at No. 3. Georgia, on the other hand, is on the rise. Their top-10 win over Texas is a significant feather in their cap, propelling them up to No. 4. And then there's Texas Tech, who after beating UCF, has earned a spot in the top five. It’s a testament to their season so far.
Ole Miss finally got over the hump against Florida under Lane Kiffin, and that victory lands them at No. 6. Now, let's talk about the teams with losses. Oklahoma’s road win at Alabama is a massive statement. It’s a better win than what Notre Dame has on its resume, making the Sooners the highest-ranked two-loss team. Alabama, despite beating Georgia, falls behind Oklahoma due to that head-to-head result, though their win over the Bulldogs still keeps them ahead of Notre Dame. The Irish themselves had a strong showing, dominating Pitt on the road, which solidifies their position.
Oregon, who had a ranked win over Iowa last week, might see their stock dip slightly. With Iowa losing again, the Ducks might not have a currently-ranked win in the committee's eyes, allowing some two-loss teams to leapfrog them. Their upcoming game against USC will be crucial for them to climb back up.
BYU, after a bounce-back win over TCU, is on the cusp of the top 10, looking like the first team out. Miami (Fla.) is showing consistency, a trait the committee has explicitly looked for. Their dominant win over NC State moves them up again. Utah, despite a solid win over Baylor, finds itself in a bit of a holding pattern, with limited room to move up based on their current resume. Vanderbilt, having had a bye week, couldn't prove themselves further to a committee that wasn't overly impressed with their overtime win against Auburn.
Southern California’s win over a then-ranked Iowa team is enough to push them into the top 15. Texas, unfortunately, is likely to fall below Vanderbilt, even with a head-to-head win, due to their three losses, particularly the significant defeat at the hands of Georgia. Michigan, however, keeps their playoff hopes alive with a win over Northwestern, but they need to be wary of trap games, like their upcoming matchup against Maryland.
Georgia Tech’s narrow win over Boston College might cause them to slide. The committee values metrics, and the eye-test hasn't been particularly strong for the Yellow Jackets lately. Virginia, after a loss, responded with a win over Duke, but it doesn't seem to be moving the needle much. Tennessee, after handling New Mexico State, enters the top 20. And keep an eye on Illinois; their recent winning streak and a win over USC could see them crack the rankings. Houston, at 8-2 with their only losses to strong opponents like Texas Tech, is also a team that could make a move.
