It's easy to get lost in the sheer numbers of an election, but sometimes, looking at the 'who' and 'why' behind the votes offers a much richer picture. When we talk about the 2020 election, the question of 'what percentage of Americans voted' is just the tip of the iceberg. The real story, as revealed by surveys like AP VoteCast, is about the diverse groups that make up the electorate and what motivated them.
Four years ago, the landscape was shaped by a potent mix of opposition to Donald Trump and deep concern over the COVID-19 pandemic. Joe Biden managed to build a broad coalition, winning over college graduates, women, younger voters, urban dwellers, and a significant majority of non-white voters. He even managed to peel off some moderate voters and white women who had previously leaned Republican. It wasn't an overwhelming victory, but it was decisive enough to secure the presidency.
On the other side, Trump held onto his core base: white voters without college degrees, rural communities, and religious conservatives. These groups, while perhaps not growing, are substantial, and he won them decisively. In fact, about three-quarters of voters in 2020 were white, and 55% of them cast their ballot for Trump. His support among white evangelical Christians was particularly strong, around 8 in 10, and he also secured a majority of voters in small towns and rural areas.
What's fascinating is how the motivations behind voting have shifted. In 2020, the pandemic was a dominant issue for nearly 40% of voters, and most of them supported Biden. Today, that concern has largely faded, replaced by issues like inflation, immigration, and abortion. This shift could potentially benefit Trump, as the economy was an area where many voters felt he had an edge even in 2020.
It's also worth remembering that the 2020 election was, for many, a referendum. While about 60% voted primarily for their candidate, a significant portion – around 40% – were voting mainly against a candidate. This highlights the deeply personal and often reactive nature of political engagement.
Looking back at 2020 isn't just about historical data; it's about understanding the enduring dynamics of American politics. The coalitions built, the issues that resonate, and the underlying motivations of voters continue to shape the political conversation, especially as we look towards future elections.